Our politics and economics will remain unaligned until we objectively assess how inequality and unemployment interact. The national dialogue can be meaningfully upgraded by developing a version of the Phillips Curve. In 1958 William Phillips published his research showing that, over the prior century, when inflation went up in the UK, unemployment went down. This…Continue reading Debate urgently needed on trade-offs between jobs and inequality

Criticism of the ANC was quite restrained until about five years ago when evidence gushed forth of rampant patronage.  Yet subsequent electoral loyalty seemed to endorse mixing widespread patronage with dismal education outcomes.  For a sense of perspective, we should consider the pace of last century’s global progress away from bowing to monarchs and saluting…Continue reading Solutions require situational awareness

Neither party will survive if they continue their current trajectories The DA’s challenging race-based politics and policies limits its electoral appeal while increasing its value to the ANC as a coalition partner. By 2024, the risk of the ANC being in perpetual decline will be well established. If the DA isn’t then integral to overcoming…Continue reading An ANC-DA coalition would stitch commerce to development

Future generations are unlikely to be impressed by how today’s global challenges are being navigated today. It will be noted that South Africa’s stumbling transition highlighted dangers arising from cavalierly subordinating interests to ideals. Corruption eventually became obvious – but it is the deeper disconnects which provide early warnings. Neither poverty-induced starvation nor violence have been eradicated,…Continue reading Losing our way by indulging ideals

Donald Trump’s personality disorders shouldn’t block our comprehending why so many Americans voted for him. To better appreciate how stoking politically combustible inequity narratives entrenches South Africa’s poverty, we should consider how this provokes bitter partisanship in the United States. Many within and beyond US borders have benefited from that country’s decades-old embrace of free…Continue reading Understanding seventy-four million voters

Social justice politics clashing against the demands and opportunities of an intensely integrated global economy was already stressing societies before Covid. Despite prosperity paths becoming a global norm, a majority of South Africans will, in all likelihood, be locked into poverty a generation from now. How will future generations judge today’s failing stewardship? The US’s…Continue reading Innovation is the way to growth, not redistribution

By Shawn Hagedorn -Jan 9, 2021 In the Daily Friend East Asians have shown that massive poverty can be eradicated in half the average human’s lifespan. Yet most South Africans are poor and this looks set to persist for generations. Solutions elude us because our national dialogue resembles a Jenga tower of misconceptions tilting against intense global…Continue reading Bold vision needed for South Africa to escape poverty

Fixing our economy is going badly because it isn’t just damaged. The underlying structure ensures decline. That this largely traces to enrichment of the politically connected makes raising awareness harder and essential. The world economy’s primary growth drivers have become innovation and global integration. Believing this can be ignored reflects the perception that we can…Continue reading Step one for fixing the economy

Leaders are squeamish about distinguishing the legacies of historical injustices from the effects of today’s policy biases 03 DECEMBER 2020 – 14:23 SHAWN HAGEDORN Many are expecting too much of the IMF, while others fret about losing economic sovereignty. Meanwhile, the life prospects of millions of South Africans are being unnecessarily downgraded to chronic destitution. Talk…Continue reading Check your perceptions: the slogan we need to get to the crux of SA’s myriad problems

Global integration makes it impossible, while economic resiliency depends on many other factors 19 NOVEMBER 2020 – 18:46 SHAWN HAGEDORN Business Day Crisis management demands objective awareness whereas SA’s economic decline traces to misperceptions. A sovereign debt restructuring looms while we associate IMF assistance with a loss of economic sovereignty. Believing in economic sovereignty is like…Continue reading Economic sovereignty is irrelevant in a green, digital era