Economy is expected to contract the most in 2020 of all countries studied and grow the least in 2021 Sustained high growth requires we open our minds and our borders. We’ve been publicly acknowledging the grip of patronage on the government for about five years. We must now confront how long-standing isolationist biases undermine the…Continue reading Old isolationist biases undermine SA’s future, OECD study shows

Growth paths are elusive as our economic debates are warped by politics, while repairing the debt trajectory requires astute restructuring and policy reforms. The IMF’s advantage is that it deciphers economic woes and governance failures dispassionately. But will the lender of last resort deem SA’s politics incorrigible? Global integration, and its benefits, have extinguished the…Continue reading Economy will probably go from bad to worse before ANC engages with IMF

Shawn Hagedorn says all new export initiatives should enjoy sweeping dispensations from anti-competitive regulations This is the second article in a two part series. The first can be read here.  With a majority of voters and big business accepting its management of the economy, our ruling party morphed into a massive patronage network dependent on the…Continue reading Fixing the economy requires hard realism (II)

Shawn Hagedorn says a lot of economic damage could be done before ANC is forced into reform (if it ever is) Avoid making economic solutions dependent on political renewal Our economic malaise traces to constitutional structures having been subverted by a deeply entrenched patronage network. Somewhat paradoxically, this means economic fixes must precede political remedies.…Continue reading Playing chicken with the IMF (I)

Pandemic needs to expose materialism’s shallowness and highlight unemployment and poverty If the Covid crisis downgrades our devotion to materialistic pursuits, expect political resistance towards practical solutions to crumble. The ANC’s success at framing economic issues within an inequality context would collapse. Fighting poverty through creating private sector jobs could then become a unifying priority.…Continue reading Focus should move from injustices to jobs and productivity

Sidelining commercial considerations will result in plans that have no effect on SA’s chances of recovery Placing one’s hopes on a 2024 political transformation is dangerously — and needlessly — defeatist. Today’s mounting crisis must inspire a prompt overhaul of our national dialogue, allowing a powerful growth plan to emerge supported by necessary policy pivots.…Continue reading Focus on commerce must temper regulatory zeal

the ANC cannot reform from within, a workable plan must be presented to them In hindsight, it is easy to argue that our leaders outside of government should have developed the ability to design a national growth strategy long ago. As priorities go, this was important but not urgent. Now it’s urgent.  The second half…Continue reading Creating a potent growth plan starts with overcoming misperceptions (II)

the ANC’s successful political strategy is built on untenable economics Creating a potent growth plan starts with overcoming misperceptions  Despite a growing majority of South Africans being trapped in poverty, nearly everyone chooses “inequality”, a thinly veiled reference to apartheid’s legacy, as their lead discripitor for SA’s economy. This epitomises the ANC’s success at framing…Continue reading Creating a potent growth plan starts with overcoming misperceptions (I)

President Cyril Ramaphosa recently said: ‘We are going to have to go for growth in a big and exponential way, and be willing and be brave and courageous enough to massify whatever needs to be done, because playing around on the edges with whatever efforts we are making – that time is over now.’   To…Continue reading Why South Africa has been lacking a growth plan

The ANC has developed a formidable playbook for sidelining objective arguments by wrapping issues around contested values 30 APRIL 2020 Self-driving cars already outperform human drivers. SA’s response to the coronavirus shows that in today’s rapidly evolving, intensely competitive and integrated world, artificial intelligence (AI) can objectively unpack data that politicians unwillingly — and willingly…Continue reading We are failing to hold our elected leaders to account amid a huge crisis