BRICS’s two autocratic leaders, Presidents Xi and Putin, can see that despite the ANC crushing the lifetime-prospects for a majority of the next generation of South Africans, the party can still project legitimacy globally and domestically. It is because public opinion is so malleable, and many centres of influence so indulgent of identity politics and dismissive of known solution paths, that BRICS and SA are so strategically valuable to China and Russia.
Our ruling party can still successfully promote the ludicrous logic that because inequality is bad the ANC is good. Yet, no country has higher income inequality than SA – and we have more high income blacks than whites. Most South Africans are mired in poverty, unemployment or both. Routine service delivery shortfalls compound such hardships.
Nonetheless, at the close of this year’s BRICS summit, the UN Secretary General, António Guterres, said: “The leadership President Ramaphosa has shown on the world stage is unmatched. He has been a strong advocate for multilateralism and for the need to address the challenges facing the global community, such as climate change and poverty. South Africa is truly blessed to have Ramaphosa as president.”
Merchants of knowledge
University and media elites could, rightfully, condemn apartheid without fear of retribution. Today, such merchants of knowledge and framers of public opinion presume they can attack the evils of income inequality with similar impunity. Unfortunately however, SA spotlights the real world consequences of such intellectual overreaching. The frequently fawning international media coverage and political genuflecting for SA’s routinely disappointing president, and now for the incoherent, yet expanding, collection of disparate nations known as BRICS, further highlights how global influencers empower predatory rulers.
China’s growth model and economic trajectory have been the inverse of SA’s. Nor are the two countries’ political dispensations similar. Hence their rulers’ bogus claims to legitimacy are very different.
The ANC’s legitimacy as ruling party was initially based on its liberation efforts alongside its electoral dominance. If the party was electorally dispatched next year, its legacy would be ubiquitous patronage blended with massive – and deeply entrenched – unemployment and poverty.
China’s post-Mao legitimacy has been predicated on a perceived social contract whereby it avoids being accountable to its people, and greatly restricts their rights, but it delivers steadily rising living standards. This implied covenant was wobbling before the pandemic. Beijing’s heavy handed zero Covid policies and spiking youth unemployment have further downgraded the Chinese government’s domestic legitimacy.
Number one
By about 2006 it was becoming clear that China would become the world’s top manufacturer and number one exporter of goods. Such hugely impressive accomplishments trigger a heavy burden. Once a country or company becomes number one in a sector, there is little room to grow market share. China has long needed to restructure its economy.
China adroitly navigated the great financial crisis of 2008. Its aggressive deficit spending helped to stabilise the global economy. In 2012 the Chinese Communist Party chose a new leader, Xi Jinping. His appeal within the party reflects his vision of making China the regional hegemon during his reign leading to China becoming the global hegemon by mid century. The Belts and road initiative is his roadmap.
A key difference between a country becoming a hegemon and a company dominating a sector is that other countries will unite to undermine a hegemon which threatens their interests. A further complication is that no country has benefited more over the past four decades from the prevailing rules based global order than China.
Rather than restructure China’s economy, Xi calculated that he could bend the global order to his will. The 2008 financial crisis encouraged such thinking as did the riots in Washington on 6 January 2021 and China’s early successes at battling Covid.
The last eighteen months have gone badly for Xi. Had Russian troops displaced Ukraine’s elected government with a Moscow puppet, autocracies would be in ascendancy. Rather, Ukrainians decided that freedom was worth fighting for and the West found the resolve to support them. China’s covid lockdown took a toll on the country’s social fabric which rising youth unemployment is exacerbating.
Development economists with a commercial mindset
SA has many astute capital market economists whose perspectives persistently collide with those of ANC policy makers. Meanwhile, there is a dearth of high profile development economists with a commercial mindset, here and globally, and our national conversations skirt their insights.
Only failed nations have youth unemployment crises comparable to ours. Other countries go to great lengths to avoid persistently high youth unemployment as remedies are as elusive as the political, economic and social consequences are severe. The ANC’s seeming indifference to the damage being done can be attributed to a combination of incompetence, corruption and ideological indulgences.
Nearly three out-of-four young South African job seekers persistently fail. Well over half of our young adults are becoming permanently marginalised and there are no plausible scenarios whereby we will see noticeable improvement within the near- or even mid-term. None of our leaders offer adequate solutions.
As roughly 400,000 young South Africans become permanently marginalised every year, our political economy is becoming less and less viable. To achieve broad prosperity we always needed to pivot from being sanctioned to intensely integrating within the western dominated global economy. Embracing BRICS-styled international relations is an act of self-sanctioning.
Through intensely integrating into the western dominated global economy, China has increased per capita income by a phenomenal twenty-five times over the past four decades. Yet they still can’t rely on domestic consumption to grow their economy – and neither can we.
Being extremely competitive at value-added exporting is a great advantage which helps to explain why Xi has thought he could bend the international order to suit his agenda. But he also needed the West and much of the East to remain complacent.
Political and economic sentiments
Various US and European governments had bet on change through trade. As per Modernization theory precepts, countries like Russia and China were to become wealthier through integrating with the economies of western democracies and they were then expected to adopt compatible political and economic sentiments.
Such optimism had faded in Washington prior to the outset of the pandemic but Europeans, particularly Germans, remained hopeful. Russia’s invading Ukraine confirmed that a new cold war had begun pitting democracy against autocracies. Meanwhile, global politics celebrating identity politics lauds SA’s leaders alongside a talkshop known as BRICS – while our nation careens toward basket-case status.
China’s ‘capitalism with Chinese characteristics’ isn’t a particularly distinctive form of capitalism. Nor does its parading of communist dogma fully veil its leaders’ naked authoritarianism.
China’s domestic economy and its belt and roads initiative are looking increasingly vulnerable. Yet China and Russia are both ruled by aged despots committed to achieving imperial legacies. Neither country is popular with successful democratic nations and this explains SA’s appeal to BRICS’ autocrats.
Avoid legitimate elections in 2029
If the ANC was focused on creating jobs, they would exit BRICS and focus on adding value to goods and services destined for western consumption. The US and other western countries have exported tens of millions of jobs to China and many of those are now being moved to other emerging countries. Conversely however, it would make abundant sense for the ANC to align with autocratic countries if the party’s plan is to avoid legitimate elections in 2029 – out of the well-justified fear that they would then be ousted from the Union Building thus leading to many criminal prosecutions.
There is also the consideration that Ramaphosa loyalists are rumoured to clash with those of Deputy President Mashitile. Ramaphosa is a far better casting choice to be the African face of BRICS than Mashitile. It is hard to imagine Ramaphosa responding as coldly as Mashitile did to the video of his security detail beating up innocent motorists. “Image is everything” is not an empty expression. Successful autocrats are in touch with their “inner thug” but they want to project a warm image internationally (when they aren’t downing private jets and such).
Our president is globally perceived as Africa’s most prominent leader and Mandela’s heir. While many of us have grown tired of his routinely telling audiences what they want to hear and then failing to follow through, this perfectly qualifies him as a BRICS figurehead.
Lecture western nations
But what really makes Ramaphosa appealing to BRICS autocrats is his ability and willingness to lecture western nations about their dominating the world order. Where is the rebuttal that a majority of young South Africans are being condemned to perpetual poverty in order to perpetuate ANC patronage? From Xi and Putin’s perspectives, Ramaphosa is the perfect public face for BRICS.
BRICS has never been a credible organisation but this isn’t going to prevent it from judging successful, democratic countries that seek to advance their citizens’ welfare. Nor does its lack of cohesion and purposefulness prevent it from admitting new members antagonistic to, or at least agnostic toward, democratic principles.
Judging has become as central to politics and news reporting as prices are to markets. This is a relatively recent phenomenon. In my student days, international relations were dominated by the realists and liberal schools of thought. Constructivism has since emerged to emphasise the importance of identity and perspectives. A constructivist lens can be useful but not if it is used to blatantly indulge judging at the expense of problem solving.
Navigating
It seems Xi is navigating against historic tides. He prioritises stability and he associates it with strength and durability. This is a common trait among autocrats and imperialists but today’s global economy thrives on disruptive innovation and collaborative commercialisation.
Xi inherited an economy which, given his country’s demographic trajectory, needed to transition from excessively investing in infrastructure and housing. Market forces are now demanding this outcome and that country’s appetite for raw materials is expected to decline significantly.
But even if China’s demand for commodities surprises to the upside, aligning closely with China, or any of the other BRICS countries, can’t possibly trigger a sustained and steep increase in SA’s job creation capacity. That requires tapping into the West’s far greater discretionary consumer spending.
Instead, our profoundly incapable ruling party fixates on judging the imperfections of successful democratic countries. This sacrifices the life prospects of young South Africans to benefit autocrats and the elites who shape global discourse around criticising successful nations rather than promoting workable solutions.