Just before Clem Sunter began his recent talk at the SA Institute of International Affairs about “SA and the world beyond 2023”, a political analyst and I chatted about the ANC’s election strategy. Our concerns were then freshly illuminated as the first half of Sunter’s talk covered his forecasting methodology, particularly the importance of situational…Continue reading Confronting SA’s core misconceptions

The commitment of many leading media organisations and universities, locally and internationally, to objectively scrutinise events has been corrupted by pervasive ‘knowledge provocateurs’. The assertion that trust has been ‘corrupted’ has an alluring quality that promises an emotional payoff – few emotions are as fervent as betrayal, particularly in SA today. ‘Knowledge provocateur’ is also a…Continue reading How knowledge provocateurs abuse trust

Only failed states have youth unemployment crises as severe as ours, yet none of our leaders offers workable remedies. Why? The many credible public recommendations for improving our economy can’t create nearly enough jobs. Nations go to great lengths to avoid our ultra-elevated level of sidelined young adults because the risks compound as remedies become…Continue reading Separate challenges require separate remedies

BRICS’s two autocratic leaders, Presidents Xi and Putin, can see that despite the ANC crushing the lifetime-prospects for a majority of the next generation of South Africans, the party can still project legitimacy globally and domestically. It is because public opinion is so malleable, and many centres of influence so indulgent of identity politics and…Continue reading BRICS and illegitimate legitimacy

As this week’s Sandton shindig will not benefit ordinary South Africans, its vacuous pageantry must inspire a reality check. The ANC’s destructive economic stewardship traces to incompetence, robust corruption and ideological delusions. At the same time, our ruling party is exceptional at politically exploiting injustices – including those they cause. Countering this begins with objective…Continue reading BRICS versus broad prosperity

Next week’s gathering is not about fighting global injustice but about entrenching ruling elites In 1943 a wheelchair-bound US president embarked on a four-day seaplane journey to meet his UK counterpart. That summit could not end imperialism, but it triggered a devastating wound. The Casablanca Declaration stated that the Allies would not negotiate with any…Continue reading BRICS bloc blocks prosperity for all

Creating perceptions of a new normal is a popular trick among marketers and those seeking to grab and retain power – because it works. For those who are ambitious yet allergic to accountability, becoming either an autocrat or a leftist intellectual are compelling career choices. The first group rewards ruthlessness whereas the second favours those…Continue reading Power grabs left and right

Why did nearly all societies stumble badly when confronting Covid? Why did the virus swiftly mutate in isolated South Africa whereas this country’s stand-offish economy continues to lag adoption of major global developments?  In the recently ended three-decade post-Cold War period, global integration ignited an unprecedented surge in prosperity. While worries of a third world…Continue reading When elites block growth

Shawn Hagedorn says the constitutional order now represents an existential threat to the ANC Prioritising black oligarchs Common among the flurry of comments following Rheul Khoza’s recent speech at the Black Management Forum (BMF) is the presumption that our democratic era will endure. We should interrogate that presumption and then freshly consider Khoza’s views. If,…Continue reading Rheul Khoza’s oligarch model

Cold War II sets the stage to integrate the people in Africa into the global economy. The integrators will be a motley crew of determined, individualistic collaborators. Trying to spot large-scale opportunities without keen situational awareness is reckless and fated to fail. Our government’s interpretation of global trends is as inept as its economic stewardship.…Continue reading Beyond permission-based narratives