The ANC’s policies, and antics, are so frequently counterproductive that its opponents confidently presume they can do better.

Yet, as its rivals lack plans to surge employment, our feckless ruling party still gets away with framing issues around inequities.

While Donald Trump is very different from the ANC’s leadership in countless ways, both are elites who enjoy much support from low-income groups by promoting a brand of populism. Importantly, both are also very much aided by traditional elites consistently disparaging a majority of voters.

The US’s media and universities are dominated by a highly erudite aristocracy which has become resoundingly dismissive of the views and values of ‘ordinary Americans’. The ‘woke movement’, along with the backlash it has inspired, feeds on this.

Trump’s 2016 campaigning benefited greatly from providing a counter to decidedly left-leaning elites having so successfully stifled opposition voices through dominating mainstream and social media.

My views on Trump endear me to few. I don’t think he should have been elected and I have been hoping he would drift into obscurity. Yet while vehemently disagreeing with him on some key issues, I also acknowledge that some of his views constructively challenged orthodox thinking. It is not as if the Biden administration has categorically rejected his policies regarding, say, China or immigration. But few of Trump’s supporters or detractors rate his appeal using an issues-based scorecard.

Political rallies taught Trump that he could make radical assertions and the crowds would cheer. The leftist elites interpreted this as confirmation that he and his supporters were unhinged. Meanwhile, pro-Trump crowds relished how he sent the leftist elites into a tizzy. In this regard, Malema’s tactics more directly resemble Trump’s. Yet the ANC’s playbook is quite similar, though a bit less blatant.

Similar blind spot

While it seems reasonable to conclude that Trump and the ANC have outlived their usefulness, this can’t happen without unpacking their appeal. The US’ leftist elites still can’t see that their arrogance fuels Trump’s appeal. Opponents of the ANC share a similar blind spot.

Prospects for South Africa’s young black adults are remarkably horrific, given our having the world’s highest youth unemployment rate – except for Djibouti (population: one million). If we want to sideline the ANC, we must appreciate why this doesn’t lead to the party being toppled by the electorate.

Our ‘traditional elites’ unflinchingly attribute high youth unemployment to horrendous education outcomes which trace to corruption, incompetence and indifference under ANC rule. The non-subtle messaging is that if you are poor and unemployed, you must accept your lot in life while attributing blame to those who voted for the ANC.  

Such messaging is never going to gain favour with the majority of the electorate who are poor, unemployed or both.

Irrespective of such perceptions enjoying much validity, the focus is on accusations not solutions. If none of the parties offer a plan to rapidly grow jobs, the marginalised are being reasonable when they don’t vote. The ANC encourages such electoral neutering, as its branding emphasises redistribution. Meanwhile, the party’s massive patronage network ensures a support base that is unmoved by abundant evidence of corruption and incompetence.

Opposition parties are justifiably confident that they can improve on the ANC’s dismal service delivery performance. As all South Africans would benefit, the thinking goes that those who don’t seek to oust the ANC are stupid. This eerily echoes the tone deafness of media and academic elites in the US.

Two intertwined problems

Although dethroning the ANC in favour of competent leadership would benefit all who are not directly integrated within the party’s patronage network, there are two intertwined problems with such hopes. First, the tentacles of the party’s patronage are extremely extensive. Second, the primary beneficiaries would be private-sector taxpayers and the trickle down effects would be so slow as to invite social upheaval and its travelling companion, political instability.

As none of our political parties promote solutions aligned with 21st century global realities, the ANC’s electoral strategies remain competitive despite its horrific economic stewardship. It is as if the poor and unemployed are saying, ‘If you want our electoral support, back a plan that will create millions of jobs.’ Then the response they hear is, ‘Sorry, you are uneducated so you must suffer’.  

If ordinary Americans hadn’t become so angry about similar messaging from their elites, Trump’s electoral ambitions would have been swiftly thwarted. Yet the US’ political-economic challenges are very different from South Africa’s.

Our traditional elites have remained unwilling to acknowledge that hundreds of millions of jobs have been created in recent decades, most particularly in China, without such progress requiring solid education outcomes. Meanwhile, there is agreement across political divides that if our poorly educated young adults can’t find work serving South African consumers, then they are unemployable. Such thinking is irreconcilable with how high-growth countries sustain high growth.

The ANC is broadly corrupt and incompetent. But their electoral strategies remain formidable, as those much better off all too often expect the poor and unemployed to accept dire prospects. Fresh thinking is required.